The Department of Health (DOH) on Wednesday reported that, based on its spatio-temporal analysis of data in NCR Plus Areas and select highly urbanized cities in NCR, 80% of new cases in the recent two weeks came from 11%-30% of barangays.

The DOH added that the analysis supports the move to focus on imposing granular lockdowns on selected areas rather than wide scale lockdowns of entire provinces, highly urbanized cities, and independent component cities, which heavily impact the livelihood of Filipinos.

“Additionally, wide scale lockdowns might no longer be effective since data shows that the majority of Filipinos in NCR were mobile during the enhanced community quarantine on August 10 than the previous ECQ last April 2021 as more essential activities and workers were allowed,” said DOH Spokesperson Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.

“The DOH and FASSSTER find that based on a set of assumptions, total active cases in NCR by September 30 may range from 152,000 to 330,000 cases. This is not cast in stone since lower case projections are achieved when we improve adherence to the minimum public health standards, reduce case detection to isolation time, and increase vaccination coverage even at lower or less restrictive community quarantines,” added Usec. Vergeire.

The DOH said that the country is moving towards more targeted and recalibrated actions towards high-risk activities, imposing these localized or granular lockdowns at the household and barangay level and implementing targeted response strategies to prevent transmission and reduce strain on the livelihood of Filipinos.

The DOH urged LGUs to conduct active case finding, reduce the time for case detection to isolation, and improve vaccine coverage to lower COVID-19 cases. Moreover, the public is called on to continue to adhere to the minimum public health standards, immediately isolate when symptoms manifest, and seek consultation to help cut the transmission of COVID-19.